煤炭因素或阻碍电力企业扩大盈利

煤炭因素或阻碍电力企业扩大盈利

随着夏季来临，电力需求激增，这对上市电力企业应该是好事一桩，不过，虽然某些地区甚至还存在电力短缺的局面，但煤炭价格可能也会上涨，而且供应会吃紧，这些都可能不利于公用事业公司的盈利实现大踏步增长。

对希望投资中国股市的人士来说，电力企业仍然很有吸引力，但它们隐含的风险也开始加大。

瑞 银亚洲证券部门UBS Securities Asia的公用事业研究部主管斯蒂芬•奥德菲尔德(Stephen Oldfield)说，中国电力股近期涨势强劲，这在一定程度上是需求上升推动的；不过，我们感到近期的煤炭运输能力是个问题，担心煤炭能否及时地从产地 运出去、发到电厂。

这种担心与一年前的情况形成了鲜明对比，当时，分析师们担心的是电厂重复建设和电力供应过剩。他们说，电厂过多将导致它们的利用小时数下降，从而减少收入和利润。

仅2006年，中国发电企业的装机容量就增加了1.02亿千瓦，足足相当于英国全国的发电能力。这个增加量较政府此前的规划高出了近18%。

今 年以来，中国发电能力仍在继续快速增长，相当于每周增加一座电厂。据瑞银估计，全国可能增加装机容量0.95亿千瓦，较政府计划高出27%。大唐发电 ((Datang International Power Generation))等几家电厂曾表示，将放慢扩容速度，以免容量过剩导致利用小时数及利润受到影响。大唐的装机容量排在全国第二位。

但现在，随着中国在焦炭、钢铁和石化等高耗能产业的投资大幅增加而导致能源需求快速增长，人们对电厂投资过剩的看法已经发生了变化。同时，夏季城市居民空调用电也是导致电力需求上升的又一因素。

周一，有关部门宣布，今年前5个月中国发电量较去年同期上升了15.8%，这是三年来增长最快的一次。政府还提醒说，虽然发电容量有所增加，但今年夏季仍有部分地区将出现拉闸限电的情况。

这些对持有中国电力股的投资者来说都是好消息，因为需求增加意味着发电机组将会开足马力连续运转，利用小时数将因此上升，从而带来更多的利润。

据分析师说，中国发电企业的利用小时数指标2004年一度达到高峰，当时电力处于供不应求的状态，不过，随着越来越多的电厂上马，该指标开始下降。但现在，虽然发电能力显著增加，经济增长带来的新需求超过了供应能力的增加，电厂的利用数指标将在2008年创下新高。

银 河证券(China Galaxy Securities)分析师邹序元说，现在是对电力行业进行战略性投资的时候。银河证券建议买进在上海证交所上市的国电电力(GD Power Development)、长江电力(China Yangtze Power) 和国投电力(SDIC Huajing Power)，这几家公司均买下了规模较小的竞争对手或政府出售的电厂。长江电力是已投入发电的三峡总公司组建的上市企业。邹序元预计，国电电力今年的每 股收益将增长25%，长江电力和国投电力将增长20%。

不过，实现更大增幅的把握就不大了。电力需求的过快增长可能导致运输瓶颈和供应跟不上的情况。中国有很大一部分电厂都是煤炭发电，而煤矿大多分布在远离沿海工业带的偏远地区，因而运输是个大问题。

此外，煤矿在迅速增加产量方面也力有不逮。已成为世界第一大煤炭出产国和消费国的中国今年也第一次成为净进口国。这两个因素推高了煤炭价格，而政府方面也不打算再继续控制煤价。瑞银的奥德菲尔德说，今年的煤炭价格有可能视地区不同上涨5%-8%不等。

从理论上讲，发电企业可将至少四分之三的煤炭成本增幅转嫁给国家电网。但近来，随着通货膨胀显示出加速上升的迹象，政府可能会因担心加剧通胀压力而不愿上调电价。奥德菲尔德说，电厂理应提高电价，但问题是这个愿望可能会因政府调控的原因而难以实现。

如 此一来，在香港上市的大陆五家电力企业中，规模较小的企业在利润方面将受到挤压，比如华电国际(Huadian Power International)或中国电力(China Power International)。这几家公司近期的表现都非常出色，因为规模小意味着装机容量扩大和利用小时数上升对他们收入和利润的推动作用也更明显。五 家公司中装机容量排在第四的华电国际2006年的净利润率是8.5%，而排在最后的中国电力的净利润率为13.3%。

不过，规模较大的华能国际、大唐发电和华润电力控股(China Resources Power Holdings)在应对煤炭涨价方面的实力更强。对于收入很高的发电企业来说，煤炭涨价的影响并不明显，因为他们与煤炭企业讨价还价的余地很大。

华 能还曾表示，计划涉足核电领域，希望到2013年时，其第一家核电站能投入运营。芝加哥投资研究机构Zachs Investment Research今年4月将华能评级定为“买进”，并将其美国存托凭证(ADR)的目标价定在45美元。周四午盘时该ADR报42.30美元，下跌33美 分。

Nomura International (HK)对大唐的评级是持有，12个月目标股价是9.50港元。周四该股收盘价是10.42港元，上涨2.8%。

SHAI OSTER



Utilities May Get Pinched By Coal

CHINA'S LISTED power companies could be facing too much of a good thing.

This summer, a big surge in demand for electricity could actually hurt some of China's utilities because coal is probably going to be costlier and harder to get -- and possibly cut into profit margins -- even as some parts of the country face power shortages.

For investors looking for a proxy on China's continued growth story, power companies still offer appeal. But the risks are starting to grow.

'The share prices of the Chinese power stocks have been strong recently, partly driven by strong demand growth, but we do have concerns near-term about the transportation network's ability to get enough coal to the power plants,' says Stephen Oldfield, head of Asian utilities research at UBS Securities Asia.

This outlook contrasts sharply with that of a year ago, when analysts warned about an oversupply of electricity. They feared that China was building more power plants than it could possibly use. They said the glut of plants would push down utilization rates, or kilowatt hours for China's utilities, cutting into revenue and squeezing profits.

During 2006 alone, China added 102 gigawatts of power capacity -- enough to power a country like England. The power that became available last year was nearly 18% more than the government had projected.

This year, China is continuing to complete one power plant a week, roughly. UBS estimates that the country could add 95 gigawatts, or 27% more than the government has projected. Datang International Power Generation, by capacity the second-biggest Chinese power company listed in Hong Kong, is one of several that has said it will slow expansion plans so overcapacity doesn't depress utilization rates and profit.

But already, the view on a possible glut has changed. That's because energy demand just keeps rising at a torrid pace -- thanks to massive increases in Chinese investment in heavy, power-hungry industries such as coking and steel or petrochemical production. Heating up demand, particularly in the summer: China's growing urban consumer class, which is switching on the air conditioning.

On Monday, China announced that power generation rose 15.8% in the first five months of 2007 from the same period a year earlier -- the fastest growth rate in three years. The government has warned that some areas still face blackouts this summer, despite added capacity.

All this should add up to good news for shareholders in Chinese power companies: High demand means every watt of power-generating capacity should be full blast 24 hours a day, seven days a week. And high utilization rates mean high profits.

Utilization rates peaked in 2004 when power demand outraced supply, but slipped as more plants came onstream, analysts say. But now, even with huge additions of power, China's economy is again racing ahead of supply and generation-plant utilization should reach a new high in 2008.

'It's a time to make strategic investment into the electricity sector,' says Zou Xuyuan, an analyst for China Galaxy Securities. His firm recommends buying mainland-listed GD Power Development, China Yangtze Power -- which controls the massive, already-producing Three Gorges Dam -- and SDIC Huajing Power, because all are buying up other plants that are being sold by smaller rivals or the state. For this year, Mr. Zou predicts earnings per share will rise about 25% for GD Power, the listed unit of China Guodian Group, and 20% for both Huajing and Yangtze.

But stronger performance isn't guaranteed. Power demand is growing so fast that it could spawn logistics bottlenecks or supply shortfalls. The vast bulk of China's generating capacity uses coal, mostly mined in pits far from the coastal industrial hubs needing electricity. The coal has to be transported via an overburdened rail network, trucked on already-clogged highways, or shipped into crowded ports.

In addition, China's coal miners are having trouble ramping up production fast enough. For the first time this year, China, already the word's biggest producer and consumer of coal, has become a net importer of the black rock. Both factors have served to push up Chinese coal prices, which the government no longer tries to control. Mr. Oldfield of UBS says coal prices are likely to increase between 5% and 8% this year, depending on location.

Technically, the Chinese producers should be able to pass at least three-quarters of the higher coal prices on to their customer, the national electricity grid. But recently, China has begun to show signs of accelerating inflation and the government may be worried about triggering even faster inflation if it raises power prices this summer. There is a need for power plants to charge more for electricity, but 'the risk is that it might not happen because of higher inflation,' Mr. Oldfield says.

That could squeeze margins for the smaller of the five Chinese power companies listed in Hong Kong, such as Huadian Power International or China Power International. These have actually performed well lately because their smaller scale has meant that recent capacity expansions and rising utility rates have had a proportionately bigger impact on their revenue and profit. Huadien, the fourth-largest listed power company in Hong Kong by capacity, had a net profit margin of 8.5% in 2006, while China Power, the smallest, had a net profit margin of 13.3%.

But now, larger ones such as the biggest Chinese power company listed in Hong Kong, Huaneng Power International, No. 2 Datang and China Resources Power Holdings may be better positioned to cope with rising coal prices. Such increases have a smaller impact on companies with big revenue, which have better bargaining power with coal suppliers.

Huaneng also has said it wants to expand into nuclear power, with the goal of opening its first plant in 2013. In April, Chicago-based Zachs Investment Research called Huaneng a 'buy' and gave a price target of US$45 for the American depositary receipts listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Midday Thursday, the ADRs were down 33 cents at $42.30.

Nomura International (HK) has a 'hold' on Datang, with a 12-month target of HK$9.50 (US$1.22). On Thursday, the shares rose 2.8% to close at HK$10.42.

SHAI OSTER